When I started putting out ratings for the XFL (after Week 3), there was one "average" team, the Dallas Renegades were the league front-runners and the stock market was doing pretty well. Now we see how quickly things can change.
I consider any team to be average if they fall into the range of -5 to +5. Only the DC Defenders fell inside that range in Week 3; now six teams do, and Houston and Dallas sit on the top and bottom edges, respectively.
Largely due to the Guardians' surprise win in Dallas on Saturday, the home-field advantage has fallen a little bit. It's still very high—it's more than twice any of the typical values of any other league I follow. The lower value should offset the newly narrowed range of team ratings, as far as the true home advantage is concerned.
Only six away teams have won in 20 games so far. In the remaining 20 regular season games, I favor the away team only three times, and never by more than 4 points. I'll be very interested to see how accurate these predictions end up being.
Now, don't take the ratings as power rankings. Power rankings should still be done based on each team's win-loss record, the numbers they're putting up and the players they're putting on the field.
A 1-4 Vipers team might be losing well enough to be 3rd in my ratings, but they're still losing a lot. If they can't gain any momentum, their potential might not be enough. They might have a chance to make the playoffs if they win 4 or 5 more games, but that's a lot to ask.
On the other hand, the teams in this league are much closer together than I was expecting just a couple weeks ago. Ten of the remaining twenty games are classified as tossups. The Wildcats and the Dragons have four tossups each. Four! Out of five! And they're not even that close to the middle of the ratings.
The Roughnecks are close to a lock for the playoffs. A win in New York and losses by the Renegades (in DC) and the Wildcats (in Seattle) would clinch it for them, as those teams would still need to play each other at the end of the season.
I love how the schedule for this league was set up. In addition to my pods hypothesis I had before, I've noticed that all the games in Weeks 8 through 10 are conference games. Each team will play all the other three teams once. Not only are conference games more meaningful for determining who gets to the playoffs—all these games will be rematches of games from the first seven weeks. Teams will have chances to avenge blowouts, shutouts and robberies. Analytics count for something all the time, but they can predict a lot less when a rivalry win is at stake.
Don’t forget to bookmark or subscribe if you’d like to see more of my ratings for the XFL and other leagues! My Throwback Thursday series continues later this week with a look at the United States Football League.
I consider any team to be average if they fall into the range of -5 to +5. Only the DC Defenders fell inside that range in Week 3; now six teams do, and Houston and Dallas sit on the top and bottom edges, respectively.
Largely due to the Guardians' surprise win in Dallas on Saturday, the home-field advantage has fallen a little bit. It's still very high—it's more than twice any of the typical values of any other league I follow. The lower value should offset the newly narrowed range of team ratings, as far as the true home advantage is concerned.
Only six away teams have won in 20 games so far. In the remaining 20 regular season games, I favor the away team only three times, and never by more than 4 points. I'll be very interested to see how accurate these predictions end up being.
Now, don't take the ratings as power rankings. Power rankings should still be done based on each team's win-loss record, the numbers they're putting up and the players they're putting on the field.
A 1-4 Vipers team might be losing well enough to be 3rd in my ratings, but they're still losing a lot. If they can't gain any momentum, their potential might not be enough. They might have a chance to make the playoffs if they win 4 or 5 more games, but that's a lot to ask.
On the other hand, the teams in this league are much closer together than I was expecting just a couple weeks ago. Ten of the remaining twenty games are classified as tossups. The Wildcats and the Dragons have four tossups each. Four! Out of five! And they're not even that close to the middle of the ratings.
The Roughnecks are close to a lock for the playoffs. A win in New York and losses by the Renegades (in DC) and the Wildcats (in Seattle) would clinch it for them, as those teams would still need to play each other at the end of the season.
I love how the schedule for this league was set up. In addition to my pods hypothesis I had before, I've noticed that all the games in Weeks 8 through 10 are conference games. Each team will play all the other three teams once. Not only are conference games more meaningful for determining who gets to the playoffs—all these games will be rematches of games from the first seven weeks. Teams will have chances to avenge blowouts, shutouts and robberies. Analytics count for something all the time, but they can predict a lot less when a rivalry win is at stake.
Don’t forget to bookmark or subscribe if you’d like to see more of my ratings for the XFL and other leagues! My Throwback Thursday series continues later this week with a look at the United States Football League.
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