Welcome to the first edition of my XFL computer ratings for 2020!
Once upon a time, I told myself I wouldn’t be doing this. The AAF left me thinking I wouldn’t be able to love a new upstart football league. But here we are, with a fresh set of ratings after three weeks of action.
It might seem incredible that there’s such a big gap between the top 4 and bottom 4 teams in the league, but that’s par for the course in any league when we’re this early into the season. As more games are played and more error is introduced into the model—i.e. as game results start to deviate more and more from expectations—that gap should narrow and we should have a few teams in the range of -5 to 5, while we have one team currently in there, and only barely.
Here’s what really stands out to me: the teams on top were all in the same “pod” in the first two weeks; then, they all won in Week 3. Let me explain what I mean.
On the first night of the season, the Roughnecks hosted and defeated the Wildcats. The next night, the BattleHawks scored the first road win in the XFL when they scraped by the Renegades. In Week 2, these teams rotated between each other: Dallas beat LA and Houston beat St. Louis. As far as the ratings were concerned, these four teams were “unconnected” to the Defenders, Dragons, Guardians and Vipers, as those four teams had only played against each other.
In Week 3, each team from Pod A—the first group I talked about—was paired up against a Pod B team, and all the Pod A teams won. That’s a significant boon to the ratings of the teams in that pod.
I don’t think it means we’re guaranteed to see that those teams will continue to succeed. After all, the Birmingham Thunderbolts of the original XFL started out well at 2-1, but finished their season 2-8. Injuries and other factors are going to be introduced into the results of future games and could play a big part in where some teams go from here.
Besides, the pods were unbalanced, containing three teams from one conference and one from the other. So even if Pod A contained the four best teams as far as these ratings are concerned, not all four can make the postseason.
But let’s say teams continue on their current trajectories. Here’s how I’d expect things to play out.
The Renegades and BattleHawks would end up winning out, headed on a collision course for the championship game, where Dallas could avenge their only loss.
Despite being the only remaining undefeated team, I’m not totally sold on Houston yet. The Roughnecks played a bad Vipers team closely; that dampens my confidence in them to beat Dallas or LA on the road, with their home game versus the Renegades qualifying as a tossup.
And despite the 39-9 blowout I just witnessed, the Defenders would make the playoff while the Wildcats are left out. DC got out to just good enough of a start that I’m more confident in them than either of the Vipers or Guardians, while the Wildcats’ early losses might be what keeps them out.
Don’t forget to bookmark or subscribe if you’d like to see more of my ratings for the XFL and other leagues! My Throwback Thursday series continues later this week with a look at the 1975 World Football League season.
Once upon a time, I told myself I wouldn’t be doing this. The AAF left me thinking I wouldn’t be able to love a new upstart football league. But here we are, with a fresh set of ratings after three weeks of action.
It might seem incredible that there’s such a big gap between the top 4 and bottom 4 teams in the league, but that’s par for the course in any league when we’re this early into the season. As more games are played and more error is introduced into the model—i.e. as game results start to deviate more and more from expectations—that gap should narrow and we should have a few teams in the range of -5 to 5, while we have one team currently in there, and only barely.
Here’s what really stands out to me: the teams on top were all in the same “pod” in the first two weeks; then, they all won in Week 3. Let me explain what I mean.
On the first night of the season, the Roughnecks hosted and defeated the Wildcats. The next night, the BattleHawks scored the first road win in the XFL when they scraped by the Renegades. In Week 2, these teams rotated between each other: Dallas beat LA and Houston beat St. Louis. As far as the ratings were concerned, these four teams were “unconnected” to the Defenders, Dragons, Guardians and Vipers, as those four teams had only played against each other.
In Week 3, each team from Pod A—the first group I talked about—was paired up against a Pod B team, and all the Pod A teams won. That’s a significant boon to the ratings of the teams in that pod.
I don’t think it means we’re guaranteed to see that those teams will continue to succeed. After all, the Birmingham Thunderbolts of the original XFL started out well at 2-1, but finished their season 2-8. Injuries and other factors are going to be introduced into the results of future games and could play a big part in where some teams go from here.
Besides, the pods were unbalanced, containing three teams from one conference and one from the other. So even if Pod A contained the four best teams as far as these ratings are concerned, not all four can make the postseason.
But let’s say teams continue on their current trajectories. Here’s how I’d expect things to play out.
The Renegades and BattleHawks would end up winning out, headed on a collision course for the championship game, where Dallas could avenge their only loss.
Despite being the only remaining undefeated team, I’m not totally sold on Houston yet. The Roughnecks played a bad Vipers team closely; that dampens my confidence in them to beat Dallas or LA on the road, with their home game versus the Renegades qualifying as a tossup.
And despite the 39-9 blowout I just witnessed, the Defenders would make the playoff while the Wildcats are left out. DC got out to just good enough of a start that I’m more confident in them than either of the Vipers or Guardians, while the Wildcats’ early losses might be what keeps them out.
Don’t forget to bookmark or subscribe if you’d like to see more of my ratings for the XFL and other leagues! My Throwback Thursday series continues later this week with a look at the 1975 World Football League season.
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