At first I told myself I wasn't going to talk again about the Seattle Seahawks this week. It feels like I've done that in almost every entry this year where I've provided a proper write-up. But we're at the halfway point in the season and I have yet another point to make where it feels appropriate, so here I go, talking about the Seahawks again.
Generally speaking, teams are projected to do about as well in the second half of the year as they already have in the first half. If you double current wins and losses for each team, chances are you won't be far off from how well they should end the season.
But there are exceptions. Tampa Bay should get to 8 wins, Arizona looks like they'll lose out. Most controversially, Seattle and the Buffalo Bills are projected to lose hold on the wild card spots they currently have.
I think it's pretty simple. If every team continues to play as they have up to this point, the Seahawks and Bills will have a much harder time winning than they did in the first half of 2019.
That being said, there's something to be said for momentum. Having a good mindset about the future of a team can improve that team's outcomes by so much. I wouldn't be surprised if those two teams at least break even to end the season, which should be enough to get them into the postseason.
Crazy things happened this past week, with the Dolphins winning and the Patriots losing. So can anything happen? Yeah.
But the point of analytics is to find out what things have a greater chance of happening.
(That being said, I still don't think the 49ers really will go undefeated. Ask again in December.)
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