Have I talked at all about the REDBLACKS this year? I don't think so—at least not at length. Maybe I've mentioned them in passing.
Even when they were 2-0 after three weeks had passed, I was never super-high on Ottawa. Yes, even after they beat the Stampeders, my preseason champ pick, in Calgary in that first week. The ratings were weighted to the point where Ottawa never got very high while they were good—and now they're bad.
Having lost 8 of 9 since that 2-0 start, it's not a hot take at all on my part to say that Ottawa doesn't look like they'll make the postseason. Following the Argonauts' huge win on Saturday, Toronto has caught up in the ratings to the point where I favor them in two more games this season. (I told you this could happen!) This leaves Ottawa with one likely win, their week 15 matchup with the Lions.
Despite the seeming inevitability of all this, there is absolutely still a path to the playoffs for the REDBLACKS.
I can't continue to understate the possibility for anything to happen. Anything can happen. The team who wins on any given day won't always be the better team—it won't even always be the team who played better.
My purpose in running this blog is to look at what has happened in the past and to see what it means for the future—what is likely to happen. So, what is likely to happen for Ottawa?
I can't see them winning at the Tiger-Cats, despite that team's recent downtrend. Other than that, here's what's on the table for the REDBLACKS:
- The most likely 4th win is that week 15 game vs. BC that I already brought up.
- It's possible that Ottawa just had a really bad day on Saturday and that they can still outplay the Argos in weeks 18 and 20. The REDBLACKS will have more to lose in those games and they can definitely still get to six wins with those.
- This coming weekend, which sees the REDBLACKS visit BC, is the next-most likely.
- Seven wins could get them to a playoff appearance, and any seven would do, but wins vs. the Alouettes and Eskimos would go a long way toward preventing a crossover and could even earn Ottawa the 2nd seed in the East.
For now, Ottawa is on the outside. The Stamps host the Riders with a projected sweep of their pair of regular season meetings, while the Eskimos take the crossover and are even projected to win in Montreal in the first round.
Be sure to leave any thoughts in the comments here, and don't forget to subscribe if you think you'll enjoy keeping track of the CFL and other leagues this year with me.
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