-It might be fair to say NoPoll matters more at this point in the season. I don’t deliberately use it more to make my postseason picks. However, I don’t take much stock in the polls until later in the season, and only when it’s clear that the voters are ignoring computer rating systems.
-Only an exceptional 7-5 team can get in at this point. That was Weber State last week and it is still Weber State this week. A fourth-place finish in the FCS’ strongest conference and two 6-point losses to FBS teams are hard to ignore. Still, a win this week vs Northern Iowa would be huge.
-Does it seem like I’m snubbing Monmouth? This isn’t the first time I’ve left them out at 9-3 and it probably won’t be the last, but an exceptionally strong showing in a weak Big South can still get them in, even if they don’t beat projected champion Kennesaw State.
-And do 5 winless teams seem like a lot? It probably is. Eastern Illinois, Missouri State, Bryant, Northern Colorado and Bucknell—expect one or two of these to steal a couple games from better teams to avoid lost seasons.
And 4 out of 5 of these ahead of a 6-5 Merrimack?! How can that be? Simple answer: stronger schedules. Merrimack plays 4 games against teams in its new home, the NEC—a weak conference. And their out-of-conference schedule, with three non-Division I teams, doesn’t help them either.
-Valparaiso lost, badly, to a Division II team. Why aren’t they further down in the ratings?
One way to say it is that not all the ratings I use don’t specifically account for games against non-Division I teams. I know that Sagarin in particular does not. However, if Valparaiso can’t win against Truman State, can they be expected to win against many more teams? Is a loss this week against Charleston out of the question anymore?
Another important piece: this wasn’t Truman’s first Division I win this year, as they also won at Drake, one of Valparaiso’s fellow Pioneer League members, to open the season. So they’re a good team.
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