We're finally here! College football in the U.S. begins on August 24, 2019, with 2 games each in the Football Bowl Subdivision and Football Championship Subdivision (or FBS and FCS, respectively).
The first thing I want to put out for the coming year are my bowl projections. There are 39 bowl games this season, excluding the national championship game, which means 78 teams out of 130 are needed to fill every spot. To qualify for a bowl game, generally speaking, teams must win at least 6 games (usually out of 12) and must not be banned from postseason activity.
A Special Note
I used Jeff Sagarin's preseason college football ratings to generate the win-loss records that helped me arrive at these bowl projections. Prior to this past Monday, when those ratings were released, I was using an imitation set of ratings which operate on the same principles, but which were generated by a set of ratings from other sources.
I have no doubt that Mr. Sagarin has a system in place that has worked for him in the past to predict how teams will progress from year to year. However, I place much more confidence in the ratings I generated prior to his ratings' release.
I'll be keeping track of how accurate these two sets of ratings are for the coming season. It'll be kind of like a competition!
Now, onto the bowl projections. Major bowls (known as the New Year's Six) are highlighted: orange for the College Football Playoff games (the semifinals and the NCG) and yellow for the others.
Notable exclusions would be the Missouri Tigers—ruled ineligible for the postseason under any circumstance, even with a projected 10-2 final record—and the Liberty Flames—for whom a 6-6 record isn't enough to combat their lack of bowl tie-ins.
Even without Missouri, the SEC places a league-high 9 teams in bowls, tied with the ACC and the Big Ten for the most of any conference. 7 of 10 teams in the Big 12 qualify, the highest percentage for any league at 70%.
Be sure to leave any thoughts in the comments here, and don't forget to subscribe if you think you'll enjoy keeping track of college football this year with me.
The first thing I want to put out for the coming year are my bowl projections. There are 39 bowl games this season, excluding the national championship game, which means 78 teams out of 130 are needed to fill every spot. To qualify for a bowl game, generally speaking, teams must win at least 6 games (usually out of 12) and must not be banned from postseason activity.
A Special Note
I used Jeff Sagarin's preseason college football ratings to generate the win-loss records that helped me arrive at these bowl projections. Prior to this past Monday, when those ratings were released, I was using an imitation set of ratings which operate on the same principles, but which were generated by a set of ratings from other sources.
I have no doubt that Mr. Sagarin has a system in place that has worked for him in the past to predict how teams will progress from year to year. However, I place much more confidence in the ratings I generated prior to his ratings' release.
I'll be keeping track of how accurate these two sets of ratings are for the coming season. It'll be kind of like a competition!
Now, onto the bowl projections. Major bowls (known as the New Year's Six) are highlighted: orange for the College Football Playoff games (the semifinals and the NCG) and yellow for the others.
Notable exclusions would be the Missouri Tigers—ruled ineligible for the postseason under any circumstance, even with a projected 10-2 final record—and the Liberty Flames—for whom a 6-6 record isn't enough to combat their lack of bowl tie-ins.
Even without Missouri, the SEC places a league-high 9 teams in bowls, tied with the ACC and the Big Ten for the most of any conference. 7 of 10 teams in the Big 12 qualify, the highest percentage for any league at 70%.
Be sure to leave any thoughts in the comments here, and don't forget to subscribe if you think you'll enjoy keeping track of college football this year with me.
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