We open with this week's ratings, largely unchanged from the previous week, where the big story is the #5 team: the Montreal Alouettes. Heading into their bye week, the team I (and many others) had pegged as the worst coming into the season is now 3-2 and riding a 3-game win streak.
What's so special about that? In my experience, it's excessively rare for a team to start a season big—and this is big for a team running with an interim head coach and no owner—and not end up delivering a postseason appearance in the end. I've paid enough to the American game, where the teams who bring the big early surprises usually become the big Cinderella stories of the year.
What might be even bigger is that my ratings believe the Als should be 0-5 right now. Look at that "should be" set of columns. Montreal has 3 wins and are currently 3 wins above what they "should be."
If you're thinking that's preseason bias in the works, you're probably right. That's why I'm itching to get rid of those constraints that keep the ratings close together. Don't be surprised if next week, the good teams appear to have gotten better and the bad teams appear worse, because that's what will happen if I let Excel Solver run wild.
Be sure to leave any thoughts in the comments here, and don't forget to subscribe if you think you'll enjoy keeping track of the CFL this year with me.
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