Freddy's CFL Ratings: 2019 Week 2

A 50-point loss at home? You just hate to see that happen. That is, unless you're a Ti-Cats fan, but also especially if you're analyzing the game the way I do. Score margins this big just "shouldn't" happen in a league this size, especially this early on. But, well, that is what happened, and now I have to figure out what that means for all 9 CFL teams.

In week 3, we'll see Hamilton's first two victims go head-to-head in Regina. Now, my computer likes to assume that teams will continue to perform as they have in the past. This means that, this early on, it will apply a sort of transitive property to projections for the future. Right now, Toronto and Saskatchewan are connected by one common opponent, Hamilton. If they continue to perform the same, relative to how they played the Tiger-Cats, here's what we would expect.

• The Roughriders lost by 6 in Hamilton in week 1. Given a 3.00 home field advantage, this puts the Riders at 3.00 less than Hamilton.
• The aforementioned 50-point loss yesterday was in Toronto. This sets Hamilton and Toronto 53.00 apart.
• If the teams were to continue to perform as they have, the Roughriders should be 50.00 higher than the Argos. Add in the home field and, left unchecked, my computer would say Saskatchewan will win by 53 next weekend.

But that's not how I operate. Under my system of tempering my ratings, teams are pushed toward my established average of 20.00, at least early on. If a team continues to stand out above (or below) the rest, months into a season, then the ratings will eventually reflect that.

Right now, my ratings are still partly based on last year's results and on five-year trends. After week 3, the "web" of teams who have played common opponents will have become more interconnected, and I'll start to remove more of the measures made to counterbalance extreme results (such as yesterday's).

CFL ratings following two weeks of action.

So yes, we still have the 0-1 Stampeders on top. It's partly because they were idle this week, partly because they've done so well for so long recently, and partly because their one opponent so far, Ottawa, has done so well.

It only gets weirder from here.

Projected final standings based on two weeks of games. No need to pinch yourselves, Riders fans.

Somehow, we've arrived at a scenario where neither of the top 2 teams is expected to win their respective divisions.

Part of it stems from the fact that Ottawa still "shouldn't have" won their first game against Calgary. Had that one gone as expected, there would be a two-way tie in the East (which I would give to Hamilton on expected score margins, as the Ti-Cats and REDBLACKS only play twice this year) and a three-way tie in the West for second (which I haven't looked into how it would resolve because it's June).

But still, the Riders on top? Ahead of three teams rated better than them? How in the world can that be?

Look again at those ratings. The top 6 are bunched so close together, any games between any two of them should be relatively close. In many cases, the home field advantage makes all the difference. But this gives the Roughriders an edge: they play two away games at the Lions, and only one each at the other three West teams. A favorable schedule could have a hand in helping them win the division, but that's not all.

Take a look at the right-hand side of the standings table for another way to explain this. The "median" finishes for the teams in the West end up being what you'd expect from the ratings, with Calgary on top and Saskatchewan in fourth. The Riders have an astounding 9 games that could realistically go either way. The scenario that sees them going 13-5 requires them to win all 9 games, and that's probably not going to happen. We can expect they'll win some and lose some, making an 8- to 10-win finish much more likely.

But because I base my projected playoff bracket not on the median, but on the "PROJ FINAL," here's where that takes us.

After two weeks, here's what the playoff picture looks like.

Toronto tumbles out of the picture and the Riders not only replace them, but they take the top seed in the West and create a rematch of Thursday's game in the Grey Cup.

Once again, Winnipeg claims the 2 seed on expected score margins vs. Edmonton, as the two play just twice this year. This means there's really no room for mistakes in Thursday's meeting between the two.

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