I've been on a bit of a break ever since the collapse of the Alliance of American Football. That warrants its own post, if anything, so I won't dwell on it here. We've got something more important to discuss, anyway.
The Canadian Football League (CFL) is, as the name implies, the highest level of play in Canadian football. This is slightly different from American football—the rules are different, the field is different, etc. I won't get into these differences here, because there are plenty of other places you can read up on them, and it's just not the focus of this blog. I'm here to provide something which there has been a dearth of: computer ratings for the CFL.
I can think of one website, Massey Ratings, which offers computer ratings for this league. My ratings will seek to emulate Jeff Sagarin's football ratings. The ratings, combined with a given universal home-field advantage, make it easy to compare any two teams. Readers will be able to determine the expected margin of a game easily.
Because of the way I expect things to work out, every game will impact the ratings equally. As such, a team could peak late, win the Grey Cup (the CFL championship game) and still not reach the top of my ratings. I'm not interested in weighting my ratings to make sure that the champion is on top; I want my number-one team to be the one who performs the best over the course of an entire season.
Now, onto the ratings themselves. Using a combination of five-year trends, preseason results and last year's final ratings (all in moderation; I do realize a team's success or failure can correlate to these, but is not caused by them), I've created a set of ratings to start the season with.
The Canadian Football League (CFL) is, as the name implies, the highest level of play in Canadian football. This is slightly different from American football—the rules are different, the field is different, etc. I won't get into these differences here, because there are plenty of other places you can read up on them, and it's just not the focus of this blog. I'm here to provide something which there has been a dearth of: computer ratings for the CFL.
I can think of one website, Massey Ratings, which offers computer ratings for this league. My ratings will seek to emulate Jeff Sagarin's football ratings. The ratings, combined with a given universal home-field advantage, make it easy to compare any two teams. Readers will be able to determine the expected margin of a game easily.
Because of the way I expect things to work out, every game will impact the ratings equally. As such, a team could peak late, win the Grey Cup (the CFL championship game) and still not reach the top of my ratings. I'm not interested in weighting my ratings to make sure that the champion is on top; I want my number-one team to be the one who performs the best over the course of an entire season.
Now, onto the ratings themselves. Using a combination of five-year trends, preseason results and last year's final ratings (all in moderation; I do realize a team's success or failure can correlate to these, but is not caused by them), I've created a set of ratings to start the season with.
 |
| 2019's preseason CFL ratings |
Right away, something should jump out. With Calgary at more than 3 points ahead of any other team, even with a home advantage of 3.00, Calgary should still be expected to win at Edmonton or Winnipeg.
Indeed, by looking at the projected standings, one will see this is the case. The Stampeders are projected to win all 18 regular-season games, as well as their playoff games and, consequently, the Grey Cup.
 |
| Projected standings for the CFL in 2019. Also included are current records, divisional records, point totals, and win ceilings and floors. |
Now, do I really believe the Stamps can go undefeated?
First of all, it's never happened in the history of the CFL. Calgary once went undefeated, in the 1940s, but that predates the league. So history is against them.
Second, my computer, for a large portion of the early season last year, had this same projection: 18-0. But after a 7-win start, the team finished 13-5. Two of the five losses were home games late in the year.
So I could look at the schedule and tell you which games are the most likely losses for Calgary, but it wouldn't be enough. Just like in American football, any team can win or lose any given game.
What should you take away from this? Calgary should be favored in all of their games, at this point in the season, even if the expectation is a 1-point win. As the final group of columns indicates, there are 6 games that are projected close enough to be called tossups; losing half of these would put the Stamps at 15-3, which is a fair expectation for a team that has won 77% of their regular season games in the previous five years. Teams that have been that good for that long tend not to drop off big.
I'll conclude with the playoff bracket that comes from these projected standings.
BC makes the postseason despite their fourth-place division finish because of the "crossover" rule which allows such a team in if they have a better record than the third-place team in the other division. In this case, 9-9 outdoes 6-12.
The Winnipeg-Edmonton tiebreaker goes past head-to-head record (the teams are projected to split) and into head-to-head points. The Esks just barely edge out the Bombers on that, and earn the 2 seed in these projections.
Be sure to leave any thoughts in the comments here, and don't forget to subscribe if you think you'll enjoy keeping track of the CFL this year with me.
Comments
Post a Comment