For now, I think it's fair to assume that, if all the favorites win their championship games, status quo will hold and Utah will remain ahead of Oklahoma. I have them playing Ohio State in the Peach Bowl, while LSU and Clemson would head west for the Fiesta.
I think whoever gets that top seed will play in the Peach Bowl, since it would force the next three teams to travel across the country and back if they make it to the championship.
But if we get anything other than what we're suspecting—and I suspect we will—then we'll have to rewrite these plans.
Namely, I think Baylor gets in over Utah if both win. Both would be 12-1, but Baylor will have defeated Oklahoma in a rematch of their only loss of the season.
Should Georgia win, they would be in, but I don't see them moving higher than 3. Ohio State is in a class of its own and Clemson convincingly defeated South Carolina, the only team to beat Georgia this year.
I doubt we see more than one upset between the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12, but who knows?
One thing I need to note with the bowl projections is that while the New Year's Six are based on my projected final rankings from the CFP committee, other bowls do not need to follow those. Those bowls, such as the Citrus, can invite whomever they want, bypassing higher-ranked teams for others if they see fit. That's why I have Alabama over Auburn playing Michigan. Penn State gets passed over because they played in the Citrus last season.
Eastern Michigan gets a bowl bid over Toledo, as what I would consider the "last team in". Yes, Toledo has the head-to-head win this year. They also have some bad losses and are a borderline bottom 25 team. This is a point where I'm willing to be wrong in the end because of what I think should happen.
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