The playoffs are upon us! Tomorrow, we'll see the first round come and go and eight teams will be eliminated. Let's see what the committee got right and what I'd change from the field of 24 teams.
I must say, I think the committee got almost everything right here. They hit the nail on the head with their top 6 seeds, which are the FredRank current top 6. Seeding Montana State ahead of Montana absolutely makes sense when the Bobcats mauled the Grizzlies in the last week of the season.
I would have placed Monmouth in the top 8 and Northern Iowa would have gotten a nod from me over South Dakota State, but there's definitely enough wiggle room in the top 12 that I don't have much reason to complain.
You should notice, however, a big outlier near the bottom of my bubble: Southeastern Louisiana reached the playoff field over several teams placed ahead of them. Not only that, but they'll be playing Villanova, a team who will have to travel a long way to play them. I'd consider that a reward—one that should have at least been given to conference champion Nicholls, if it had to happen at all.
I think Eastern Washington or Southern Illinois had the best arguments to be included over SELA.
It's worth noting that Illinois State moves on to the quarterfinals in this projection by the narrowest of margins. Because their Sagarin rating this week is 52.75, while Southeast Missouri State's is 50.43 and the home field advantage is 2.32, the projected margin for the game is 0.00—and my system assigns wins for such situations to the away team. Central Arkansas' rating happens also to be 50.43, so Illinois State "beats" them by 0.00 as well.
It's a quirk in the system I never felt a need to fix until now. I still don't know if I will, since I've never noticed something like that line up so well.
I'd also like to note that Southern and Grambling have their annual rivalry game tomorrow. This will decide who plays Alcorn State for the SWAC Championship, which determines who plays in the Celebration Bowl. So we could still see any of three teams in that bowl game against North Carolina A&T.
I must say, I think the committee got almost everything right here. They hit the nail on the head with their top 6 seeds, which are the FredRank current top 6. Seeding Montana State ahead of Montana absolutely makes sense when the Bobcats mauled the Grizzlies in the last week of the season.
I would have placed Monmouth in the top 8 and Northern Iowa would have gotten a nod from me over South Dakota State, but there's definitely enough wiggle room in the top 12 that I don't have much reason to complain.
You should notice, however, a big outlier near the bottom of my bubble: Southeastern Louisiana reached the playoff field over several teams placed ahead of them. Not only that, but they'll be playing Villanova, a team who will have to travel a long way to play them. I'd consider that a reward—one that should have at least been given to conference champion Nicholls, if it had to happen at all.
I think Eastern Washington or Southern Illinois had the best arguments to be included over SELA.
It's worth noting that Illinois State moves on to the quarterfinals in this projection by the narrowest of margins. Because their Sagarin rating this week is 52.75, while Southeast Missouri State's is 50.43 and the home field advantage is 2.32, the projected margin for the game is 0.00—and my system assigns wins for such situations to the away team. Central Arkansas' rating happens also to be 50.43, so Illinois State "beats" them by 0.00 as well.
It's a quirk in the system I never felt a need to fix until now. I still don't know if I will, since I've never noticed something like that line up so well.
I'd also like to note that Southern and Grambling have their annual rivalry game tomorrow. This will decide who plays Alcorn State for the SWAC Championship, which determines who plays in the Celebration Bowl. So we could still see any of three teams in that bowl game against North Carolina A&T.
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