-There probably won’t be 4 undefeated teams in the FBS by the end of the regular season and conference championship games. Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma could all drop a game or two by then. But for now, I think they deserve to be favored in their remaining games, even if only slightly.
-I placed LSU (11-1) in the Sugar Bowl over Georgia (11-2) because of the latter’s projected loss to Auburn. Otherwise, these two are neck-and-neck.
-Georgia would head to the Orange Bowl instead, where it’s been hard to pick a suitable ACC opponent for them. I’m sticking with Wake Forest (10-2) over several 3-loss teams—but any of these options would probably get demolished by the Dawgs.
-Because of bowl tie-ins for most of the New Year’s Six this year, Notre Dame and Penn State (both 11-1) compete for the final spot. If I could, I’d have both of them in over some of the ones I’m forced to include, such as Texas (10-3) and Wake Forest. As it is, I have a more consistent Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl, vs …
-Central Florida, who maintains the Group of 5 NY6 bid despite a loss to Pittsburgh (who moves up to 9-4 with an ACC conference championship appearance) this past week. The main impetus for this decision: I no longer have Boise State (11-1), their biggest competition for that spot, winning the Mountain West. A projected loss to Utah State (11-2) would keep them out of the conference championship. Other G5 champs Appalachian State (12-1), Toledo (12-1) and Marshall (11-2) are still a bit behind the Knights.
-Some of these bowls are going to shift around in quality throughout the year. For example, I have SMU (10-2) facing off against Boise State in the Frisco Bowl. That’s mostly because it’s a bowl that can feature an American team and a Mountain West team, and the two make for a good matchup. That can change—and I imagine it likely will as the year goes on.
-Absent from the bowl picture despite qualifying is a 6-6 Nevada team, even though they outrank quite a few teams who make it into bowls. It’s not always about being the better team: sometimes, you also need to be in the right conference.
-On the other hand, with D’Eriq King calling it a season, Houston might not actually make it. That projected 7-5 is looking more like 4-8 now. Since I can’t be certain that King sitting will definitely translate to a losing season for the Cougars, I still have them in. A loss this week to North Texas would contribute to a change in the outlook, for sure.
I think I’d move Temple to the Birmingham Bowl in Houston’s place and send Hawaii to the Hawaii Bowl, if I had to adjust for losing Houston from this week’s bowl picture. Then I might look into moving some of the remaining MWC teams around, since North Texas and Nevada looks like a bit of a mismatch.
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