FBS FredRank and Bowl Projections: 2019 Week 2

As with my FCS post for this week, before I really get into this week's ratings, I want to make a special note on the Sagarin ratings I used to get them. This week's are, shall I say, off by quite a bit on a few teams. Normally, Sagarin doesn't allow the overall ratings to move by very much, this early on. However, a failure of whatever measures he normally uses, combined with some pretty extreme results in both FBS and FCS games, caused some pretty big leaps and falls.

I noticed that his GOLDEN_MEAN ratings are close to the previous ratings, although there was still some movement. I'm using those ratings in FredRank this week; I plan to go back to using the overall ratings soon.


The maximum FredRank for this week is probably close to 0.800, as some computer rating systems have yet to begin publishing for 2019.

It's important to note that while, yes, there is some clear SEC bias present, once those projected losses for teams like Georgia, Auburn and Florida start coming in, they'll start to fall closer to the middle of the top 25, I expect, just like they'll fall in the polls.

For the College Football Playoff (games highlighted in orange below), I've chosen my projected four undefeated Power 5 champions: Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State.



Some bowl selections are bound to be highly regional, especially once we get into those early Group of 5 bowls. Examples would include Florida Atlantic in the Boca Raton Bowl (played at FAU Stadium), North Texas in the nearby First Responder Bowl and Louisiana Tech filling the SEC's bid to the Independence Bowl.

It's somewhat confounding to choose between Central Florida and Boise State for the Cotton Bowl; I have both of them going 13-0 to end the regular season. I have UCF losing in the Cotton and Boise getting a 14th win in Las Vegas; if I put the Broncos in the Cotton, I'd have them losing by even more, and I'm assuming UCF would win whatever bowl they'd end up in.

While I could match the two up in the Cotton Bowl, I believe that's the least likely outcome.


What do you guys think? Who's overrated and underrated? Be sure to leave any thoughts in the comments here, and don't forget to subscribe if you think you'll enjoy keeping track of college football this year with me.

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