Today's post is about close games—because almost every team still has at least one on the schedule! This past week, three out of four games were close, decided by single digits and seeing both teams lead at some point. (The REDBLACKS were the only team who never led, their game being a blowout loss to the Riders.)
See, everyone has at least one game marked as a tossup. This would be the final column on the right, which indicates the difference in wins between each team's ceiling and floor.
As I indicated last week when I wrote to RiderFans.com, explaining what goes into my ratings, their team has the most to gain by winning their tossups. At best, my computer says they'll go 8-1 to end the season. That one loss would come at Winnipeg—against a Bombers team that appeared to struggle at times without Matt Nichols. With SSK @ WPG coming in less than two weeks now, it could be a great time for the Riders to strike if Winnipeg hasn't gotten it together by September 7.
But nothing is guaranteed, and no team has reached the 9-win threshold that would promise a non-losing season and put them in a great spot for a playoff berth. That threshold looks to be especially important for Calgary and Ottawa: as of now, I have the REDBLACKS in over the Stampeders, despite the latter's better rating, because ties between one division's third place team and the other's fourth place team are always decided in favor of the former.
As we also saw after week 8, the range in ratings has gotten smaller; the Tiger-Cats continue to regress without Jeremiah Masoli, while the Lions and Argonauts continue to build on the hopes of possibly salvaging their seasons.
Remember what I noted at the start of this season? Last year, despite their high rating, the Calgary Stampeders lost late-season games at home, including one against a Lions team that would end the regular season at 9-9 and as my lowest-rated team in the West.
This year's Argos and Lions would have no business winning at any other team, if they continue to play as they have up to this point. That's a very important caveat. But if they raise their level of play and, say, their opponent has clinched a playoff berth and rests some of their usual starters, then I could see the Lions getting to 4 or 5 wins, the Argos to 2 or 3. And personally, I'd love to see that kind of shock to the ratings, which have become quite consistent aside from that 3-to-6 range.
As mentioned earlier, the REDBLACKS re-enter the playoff picture in place of the Stamps. A Week 18 matchup between Calgary and Saskatchewan will prove important, since it's part of the Riders' route to claiming the top seed in the West.
Despite the Bombers' better division record, I now have the Riders claiming their two home games out of their three games against Winnipeg. Head-to-head results come ahead of division record in the tiebreakers.
Special note: My coverage of American college football has begun! National Football League coverage begins after the preseason finishes up this weekend!!
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