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Freddy's CFL Ratings: 2019 Week 5

on July 18, 2019

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Freddy's CFL Ratings: 2019 Week 8

With 4 upsets in Week 7, the range in the ratings is no longer expanding, but shrinking. As we come to the halfway point in the season, it's only natural that the system will have to reconcile apparent inconsistencies in team performance and we'll see some level of closeness. Maaaybe not enough to say that there's parity in the league, but I think we'll continue to have our expectations defied. It's impossible to call anyone a lock to make or miss the postseason at this point, of course. Anything can happen, no matter how inevitable one set of possibilities might seem. However. It would seem like Hamilton is fairly firmly in if they continue their winning ways—as they are projected to do—while BC and Toronto aren't expected to contend for anything for the rest of 2019. I think it's reasonable to say that the other six teams form the "bubble": any one of them could be the 3rd team left out when we reach November. Right now, that

Freddy's XFL Ratings: 2020 Week 4

I want to make something clear about my ratings before I get into this week’s edition: the system I’m operating is highly experimental. Starting this year, for my ratings in the XFL and beyond (i.e. in the CFL and NFL), I’ve begun to use a method that weights the games more heavily as the season progresses. Week 1 games have some meaning, but not as much as Week 2, and certainly not as much as Week 10 and up. This is the first season of football where I’ve decided to update the blog on a weekly basis, albeit first waiting for three weeks of play to pass by. I’ll tweak it in the offseason if I need to. I’m not going to change my system in the middle of a football season just because it’s giving us results that don’t immediately make sense. For this week, I’ve allowed my computer to select the home-field advantage, rather than using an arbitrary value of my choosing. Even knowing how other minor leagues look, it’s a very high value, but it shouldn’t be surprising. Only five r

Freddy's XFL Ratings: 2020 Week 5

When I started putting out ratings for the XFL (after Week 3), there was one "average" team, the Dallas Renegades were the league front-runners and the stock market was doing pretty well. Now we see how quickly things can change. I consider any team to be average if they fall into the range of -5 to +5. Only the DC Defenders fell inside that range in Week 3; now six teams do, and Houston and Dallas sit on the top and bottom edges, respectively. Largely due to the Guardians' surprise win in Dallas on Saturday, the home-field advantage has fallen a little bit. It's still very high—it's more than twice any of the typical values of any other league I follow. The lower value should offset the newly narrowed range of team ratings, as far as the true home advantage is concerned. Only six away teams have won in 20 games so far. In the remaining 20 regular season games, I favor the away team only three times, and never by more than 4 points. I'll be very inter

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Freddy's CFL Ratings: 2019 Week 5

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