November 21: FBS FredRank & Bowl Projections

Following this past weekend's games, here's where we stand with FredRank for the FBS.


Not much movement at the top or at the bottom, but plenty in between.

This week, the FredRank Top 25 includes 23 of 25 teams ranked by the College Football Playoff committee. Part of the reason is FredRank's forward-looking nature, as the CFP ranks teams based only on how they have performed up to this point, and not based on the expectations for games which have yet to be played.

Of the two CFP-ranked teams not in the FR Top 25, Pittsburgh is expected to lose all of its remaining three games. Miami will be looking for revenge for last year; Clemson is looking to win the ACC and make a fourth consecutive playoff; and South Carolina should look to keep improving under third-year head coach Will Muschamp. But if Pitt can steal just one of these three, they might be able to jump into the FR Top 25 as an 8-win team.

Iowa State, on the other hand, is expected to defeat both Kansas State in its conference finale and Syracuse in the Camping World Bowl. In anticipation of the possibility that the December 1 game with Incarnate Word may be canceled, due to UIW's bid to the FCS playoffs, I'm not currently including it in my projection. If the game were to be played, if Montana State can defeat UIW this Saturday, I would project Iowa State to win, putting them at 9-4 and closer to the FR Top 25.

For now, Fresno State and Missouri deserve to be ranked ahead of Pitt and ISU, at least according to FredRank standards. Both are expected to win out, which would include a conference championship for Fresno State.


Based on these numbers, here are FredRank's bowl projections.


If you watched the stream last night wherein I developed these projections, you might notice that some of the games featuring MAC and Mountain West teams have changed. This is because the games played last night featured an upset, as Western Michigan defeated Northern Illinois.

With WMU finishing the regular season at 7-5, I found it hard at first to keep them out of the mix over a 6-6 Miami University team. But in the event that Bowling Green can upset Buffalo on Friday, Miami will win the MAC East Division and play NIU for the conference championship.

The bid to replace the Big Ten in the First Responder Bowl is flexible. I had Nevada there, but the replacement team doesn't need to be a MWC team. Therefore, I made a couple switches and allowed both WMU and Miami U to play in bowls—at the expense of Wyoming, whom Nevada replaces in my projection for the Arizona Bowl.

Also left out of this week's projections are Louisiana-Monroe and Coastal Carolina, both at 6-6. ULM can still make it to 7-5 by beating their in-state rival, Louisiana-Lafayette, which would push ULL out of the Sun Belt championship and likely out of a bowl bid as well. Coastal, on the other hand, has a much more uphill battle ahead, currently standing at 5-6 and not facing a team they can dislodge from a bowl game. If only the Myrtle Beach Bowl, announced last week, were to be played this year ...

Other Notes
-Despite their independent status and no contractual ties to any bowl games this year, BYU is virtually guaranteed a bowl bid because of an agreement with ESPN.

-I'm anticipating a close game between LSU and Texas A&M this Saturday, with the A&M Aggies getting the win. Because of the huge gap between the FR Top 10 and the rest of the field, LSU might not drop far with a close loss. For now, I'm keeping them in a New Year's Six game, but that would change with any result different from my expectation.

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