Let me begin by saying this: I disagree with some of the selections that were made yesterday for the FCS tournament. It began as a gut feeling at first, but the numbers back me up at least somewhat.
In case you missed it, here's the bracket. No games have been played yet; I have my Excel sheet programmed to fill in projected winners before games have been decided.
The committee officially named ETSU, Incarnate Word and Lamar as the last 3 teams in, and Indiana State, Monmouth and North Dakota as the first 3 out. This is where I have my biggest and most fundamental disagreement with their choice. To illustrate, here is the top 50 of the freshly updated FCS FredRank.
Indiana State fits right in there with the other at-large bid teams. Lamar, on the other hand, is down there with Duquesne, who joins the tournament solely by virtue of winning a rather weak conference.
When I clear out the bracket, it actually gets even more egregious. Without the 2 additional projected wins Northern Iowa has based on their placement, they drop out of the Top 25 to #28. Meanwhile, with no changes to their numbers occurring, Indiana State stays up in the Top 25.
However, Northern Iowa is a decent team in the best FCS conference. They tied Indiana State for 3rd in the MVFC and, per Massey Ratings, have played the strongest schedule in the FCS to this point of the year. I'd be tempted to include Monmouth over Northern Iowa, but I won't argue with it.
I strongly question the "choice" to name North Dakota (not State) as one of the three bubble teams left out. They finished at 6-5 after a blowout loss to a now 3-7 Northern Arizona, who had an extra week to prepare after California wildfires canceled NAU's game at Sacramento State. It's ultimately inconsequential, since UND isn't in the tournament, but I'd have given the honorable mention to Rhode Island, Idaho State or Furman, among others.
One could split hairs about the number (3) of 6-win teams admitted to the tournament with at-large bids, but as it stands, there's really only one glaring error that was made.
Other Notes
-There are still games left to be played in the FCS regular season. The SWAC annually schedules some games for these weekends, since none of their teams will be in the tournament no matter how well they do. The SWAC championship game is scheduled for December 1, and FredRank projects Southern to defeat Alcorn State for the title and the opportunity to lose to North Carolina A&T in the Celebration Bowl.
-I put Samford in FredRank's bubble teams over Alcorn State, Sacred Heart and Western Illinois because none of the latter three had a realistic chance to make the tournament.
-Some of the pairings between seeded teams and first-round matchups are just plain odd. The 5- and 7-seed pairings stand out especially as something that should be reversed.
In case you missed it, here's the bracket. No games have been played yet; I have my Excel sheet programmed to fill in projected winners before games have been decided.
The committee officially named ETSU, Incarnate Word and Lamar as the last 3 teams in, and Indiana State, Monmouth and North Dakota as the first 3 out. This is where I have my biggest and most fundamental disagreement with their choice. To illustrate, here is the top 50 of the freshly updated FCS FredRank.
Indiana State fits right in there with the other at-large bid teams. Lamar, on the other hand, is down there with Duquesne, who joins the tournament solely by virtue of winning a rather weak conference.
When I clear out the bracket, it actually gets even more egregious. Without the 2 additional projected wins Northern Iowa has based on their placement, they drop out of the Top 25 to #28. Meanwhile, with no changes to their numbers occurring, Indiana State stays up in the Top 25.
However, Northern Iowa is a decent team in the best FCS conference. They tied Indiana State for 3rd in the MVFC and, per Massey Ratings, have played the strongest schedule in the FCS to this point of the year. I'd be tempted to include Monmouth over Northern Iowa, but I won't argue with it.
I strongly question the "choice" to name North Dakota (not State) as one of the three bubble teams left out. They finished at 6-5 after a blowout loss to a now 3-7 Northern Arizona, who had an extra week to prepare after California wildfires canceled NAU's game at Sacramento State. It's ultimately inconsequential, since UND isn't in the tournament, but I'd have given the honorable mention to Rhode Island, Idaho State or Furman, among others.
One could split hairs about the number (3) of 6-win teams admitted to the tournament with at-large bids, but as it stands, there's really only one glaring error that was made.
Other Notes
-There are still games left to be played in the FCS regular season. The SWAC annually schedules some games for these weekends, since none of their teams will be in the tournament no matter how well they do. The SWAC championship game is scheduled for December 1, and FredRank projects Southern to defeat Alcorn State for the title and the opportunity to lose to North Carolina A&T in the Celebration Bowl.
-I put Samford in FredRank's bubble teams over Alcorn State, Sacred Heart and Western Illinois because none of the latter three had a realistic chance to make the tournament.
-Some of the pairings between seeded teams and first-round matchups are just plain odd. The 5- and 7-seed pairings stand out especially as something that should be reversed.
Comments
Post a Comment