After 15 weeks of the CFL season, three teams have finally clinched playoff spots. But how much else can we be certain of? Not much.
A couple days ago on r/CFL, u/ArphtheFC posted his playoff predictions for the league and I commented with this. I'd like to spend the rest of this post expanding on it.
My model assumes that, once there's a certain sample size of games, teams will continue to perform as they have in the past. We're well past the point of getting that sample size.
Will the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Winnipeg Blue Bombers win out, aside from their meeting this Friday night? Probably not. Both teams have clinched playoff berths, as have the Calgary Stampeders. Wins by the Eskimos, Roughriders and Alouettes this Saturday would earn playoff spots and eliminate the Lions, Argonauts and REDBLACKS.
But it's important to note that while three teams have playoff berths, their seeds remain undecided. Hamilton could lose out and end up as the 2 seed in the East; Calgary and Winnipeg could both each end up in the East semifinal as the West's 4th best team.
That actually makes the three games this Saturday some of the most important of the year. The teams who make the playoffs could be chosen this weekend.
Anyone's still in the running, but what's likely to happen?
Obviously, I think the most likely scenario is that the current top 6 teams become our playoff teams. That just makes the most sense, given the model. But pay attention to the BC Lions. They've been on the rise lately, while the Eskimos are on the verge of collapse.
The Argonauts and REDBLACKS both still have a chance as well. They don't even need to top the Alouettes, as long as one of them does well enough to prevent a crossover.
As of now, the model not only has the Eskimos in over the Lions, but it still has them winning in Montreal, albeit narrowly.
But if I've learned anything from watching other leagues, it's that playoff football is entirely another level of chaos. The main takeaway from this should be the placement of the teams.
Be sure to leave any thoughts in the comments here, and don't forget to subscribe if you think you'll enjoy keeping track of the CFL and other leagues this year with me.
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